Jesper Koll: Why the Smart Money Is Moving to Japan

Something remarkable is happening in Japanese capital markets, and much of the world has not caught up yet. The Nikkei 225 has surged past levels not seen since 1989. Warren Buffett has made Japan the centerpiece of his international investment strategy, increasing his stakes in the country’s five major trading houses. Foreign net purchases of Japanese equities exceeded 5.4 trillion yen in 2025. Corporate governance reforms that were dismissed as cosmetic a decade ago are producing measurable results. And for the first time in a generation, Japan is experiencing real wage growth, rising domestic demand, and an inflation rate that signals economic vitality rather than overheating.

The question for global executives and allocators is no longer whether Japan deserves attention. It is whether they can afford to wait any longer. Few people are better positioned to answer that question than Jesper Koll, who will bring four decades of insight to the Tech for Impact Summit 2026 in Tokyo on April 26.

The Economist Who Stayed

Jesper Koll has been living in, researching, and investing in Japan since 1986 — longer than many of the country’s current business leaders have been in their roles. Over that span, he served as chief economist for Japan at JPMorgan, chief strategist and head of research at Merrill Lynch, and founding CEO of WisdomTree Japan. Today, he serves as expert director at Monex Group, one of Japan’s leading online financial services companies, and sits on the investment committee of the Japan Catalyst Fund.

His longevity in the market is not incidental to his credibility. Japan has cycled through asset bubbles, deflationary spirals, demographic alarms, natural disasters, and political reinventions. Koll was present and publishing through every phase. That continuity has earned him a place on several Japanese government advisory committees, a seat on the board of the Okinawa Institute of Science and Technology, and membership in the Keizai Doyukai — the Japan Association of Corporate Executives — as one of its few non-Japanese members. Governor Yuriko Koike appointed him Global Ambassador for Tokyo’s Financial Center initiative.

He is also, by his own cheerful admission, a Japan optimist. His widely read Substack newsletter carries that name, and his commentary in the Nikkei and international press has consistently made the case that Japan’s structural challenges — aging population, cautious corporate culture, complex regulatory environment — are becoming catalysts for precisely the kind of transformation that global investors should be paying attention to.

The Investment Thesis: Structural Change, Not a Trading Bounce

Koll’s current argument is not that Japan is having a good quarter. It is that the country is undergoing a generational reordering of how capital is allocated, how companies are governed, and how labor markets function.

Start with corporate governance. The Tokyo Stock Exchange’s 2023 initiative requiring listed companies to disclose plans for improving capital efficiency and share prices was widely seen as the TSE finally growing teeth. The exchange began publicly identifying companies that failed to comply — a “name and shame” mechanism that leveraged Japan’s corporate culture of reputation preservation. The results have been dramatic. Cross-shareholdings, the web of mutually held equity stakes that insulated management teams from market discipline, are unwinding at the fastest pace in decades. In 2025, approximately seven percent of all listed companies were under some form of takeover pressure, a figure that would have been unthinkable five years earlier.

Then there is the balance sheet revolution. Koll has documented in detail what he calls the end of Japan’s “Lazy Balance Sheet” era. For years, Japanese companies hoarded cash at levels that baffled international investors. That pattern broke in 2025. Corporate cash holdings declined, share buybacks surged, and — critically — demand deposits began shifting into time deposits for the first time in over a generation, signaling that both companies and households are repositioning for a higher-rate, higher-growth environment.

The demographic story, often cited as Japan’s fatal weakness, looks different through Koll’s lens. He has described the current moment as a “demographic sweet spot” — a counterintuitive framing that rests on observable data. Labor scarcity is forcing automation investment, driving productivity gains. Wages are rising in real terms for the first time in decades, bolstering domestic consumption. And the tight labor market is compelling companies to invest in human capital, technology, and operational efficiency rather than relying on cheap, abundant labor.

Add to this the yen’s sustained weakness, which has made Japanese assets comparatively inexpensive for foreign buyers and boosted the competitiveness of Japan’s export sector. Foreign direct investment is accelerating, with semiconductor manufacturers, AI companies, and clean energy firms establishing or expanding operations in Japan. The fiscal stimulus package — estimated at 3.4 percent of GDP — provides additional tailwind.

Koll’s 2026 outlook, published in his Japan Surprises series, projects that Japan’s inflation will continue to accelerate and end up meaningfully higher than in other major economies. That is not a warning; it is, in his analysis, the sign of an economy that is finally breaking free of the deflationary psychology that held it back for three decades.

Where Impact Meets Investment

What makes Koll’s perspective particularly relevant for the Tech for Impact Summit is his insistence that Japan’s market renaissance is not detached from the country’s social and environmental commitments. The corporate governance reforms are not just about ROE targets. They are about accountability — to shareholders, to employees, to communities. The companies unwinding cross-shareholdings and returning capital to investors are also the companies being forced to articulate purpose beyond inertia.

Japan’s Government Pension Investment Fund, the world’s largest pension fund with assets exceeding $1.5 trillion, has been a leading proponent of ESG integration. The country’s revised Stewardship Code encourages institutional investors to engage actively with portfolio companies on sustainability. The convergence of financial reform and impact consciousness is not accidental. It reflects a growing recognition, which Koll has articulated repeatedly, that the next phase of Japan’s capitalism must be productive capitalism — capital deployed toward real economic activity, innovation, and long-term value creation rather than parked in low-yield instruments or buried in balance sheet excess.

For executives considering Japan entry strategies, partnership opportunities, or capital allocation decisions, this convergence is the signal to watch. Japan is not just offering returns. It is building an institutional framework that aligns financial performance with broader stakeholder outcomes.

What He Will Discuss at T4IS 2026

At the Tech for Impact Summit, Koll is expected to address the mechanics and implications of Japan’s capital market transformation — and what it means for global leaders seeking to deploy technology and capital for impact at scale.

He joins a speaker roster designed to hold that complexity from multiple angles. Former Minister Taro Kono brings the policy architecture of Japan’s digital and economic transformation. Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson offers the decentralized infrastructure perspective. Yoshito Hori, founder and president of GLOBIS, delivers the keynote on entrepreneurial leadership and human capital investment. Kathy Matsui, general partner at MPower Partners and architect of the original “Womenomics” thesis, speaks to impact-driven venture capital. SmartNews CEO Ken Suzuki and Commons Asset Management’s Ken Shibusawa add dimensions of media innovation and multi-generational stewardship.

Koll’s contribution will anchor the financial markets narrative: why the structural reforms reshaping Japan’s corporate sector represent not just an investment opportunity, but a model for how mature economies can reinvent themselves.

Why Executives Should Be in the Room

The capital flowing into Japan is not speculative froth. It is institutional money repositioning based on governance improvements, regulatory clarity, and macroeconomic fundamentals. According to Invesco, global investors remain underweight on Japanese equities relative to the opportunity — a gap that suggests the current wave of inflows is still in its early stages.

For corporate leaders, the implications extend beyond portfolio allocation. Japan’s market reforms are creating new pathways for strategic partnerships, joint ventures, and market entry. The companies that are shedding cross-shareholdings are also, in many cases, actively seeking external partners for the first time. The startups emerging from Japan’s entrepreneurial ecosystem are looking for global distribution. The institutional investors newly empowered by stewardship reforms are looking for companies with credible impact narratives.

Understanding these dynamics — not from a newspaper summary, but from the economist who has tracked them across four decades — is the kind of strategic advantage that cannot be replicated from a distance.

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The Tech for Impact Summit 2026 takes place on April 26 in Tokyo. Seats are limited and allocated by invitation. Request your invitation to join Jesper Koll and other global leaders shaping the future of technology, investment, and impact.